Sunday’s Forum

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FILED UNDER: Open Forum,
Steven L. Taylor
About Steven L. Taylor
Steven L. Taylor is a Professor Emeritus of Political Science and former College of Arts and Sciences Dean. His main areas of expertise include parties, elections, and the institutional design of democracies. His most recent book is the co-authored A Different Democracy: American Government in a 31-Country Perspective. He earned his Ph.D. from the University of Texas and his BA from the University of California, Irvine. He has been blogging since 2003 (originally at the now defunct Poliblog). Follow Steven on Twitter and/or BlueSky.

Comments

  1. Michael Reynolds says:

    Academics, lawyers. and engineers. Three professions not known for their skills at communicating with average humans. Like, say, voters.

    What does our little OTB coterie need? Someone from sales. A person whose livelihood has depended on convincing people without use of either footnotes, citations or equations.

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  2. DK says:

    @Michael Reynolds: All comments sections needs fewer weirdos who take comments sections way too seriously and fewer self-impressed blowhards who haven’t ever run a successful campaign anywhere — and who couldn’t be elected dog catcher if they did run –yet are convinced of their imaginary political genius they knew better than to test in the real world.

    When the sum total of a D-list kidlit author’s master political salesmanship are lame comments on a somewhat successful political blog that someone else started, it’s time to get over oneself, go outside, and touch grass.

    Signed,
    A therapist versed in narcissistic traits.

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  3. DK says:

    Farmers growing desperate amid rising energy and fertilizer prices (Axios)

    Farmers across the Midwest are entering planting season under mounting financial pressure, as the Iran conflict drives up diesel and fertilizer prices — deepening an agricultural downturn that some say is the worst since the crisis of the 1980s.

    Why it matters: Rising fuel and fertilizer costs threaten to push more family farms out of business, drive up food prices and further strain rural economies already battered by trade disruptions, inflation and extreme weather.

    Bankrupting oneself into the poor house to own the libs because a trans swimmer tied for 5th place is certainly a choice. I do feel bad for the many in agriculture and in farming communities who did not vote for this.

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  4. drj says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    What does our little OTB coterie need? Someone from sales.

    I deal with sales professionals every so often.

    What they do not do is wholeheartedly agreeing with their competition that this one, supposedly terrible, little thing that is part of their product is a) actually that meaningful; b) indeed blows absolute ass.

    Instead, they tell you that it’s not a biggie, just a small thing that comes with the overall superior package – if they talk about it at all, that is.

    Or, in the words of Don Draper: “If you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation.”

    If you want to make the point that you want to make, you really need a different analogy.

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  5. Slugger says:

    Here’s some good news: overdose deaths have fallen steadily since 2022 from 108000 (approx) then to 70000 in 2025. I do wonder whether people have gotten smarter or whether the vulnerable ones have been eliminated. Where I live, there are still plenty of people doing the fentanyl stoop.

  6. Michael Reynolds says:

    A vacuum salesman knocks on a door. A potential customer lets them in. There is a possibility of a sale. The customer says, “irregardless of the price you quoted, can I get a discount?” The salesman says, “sure, but just so you know, ‘irregardless’ isn’t a word, you should say, ‘regardless.'”

    @DK and @drj don’t understand what just happened. They don’t know the sale is lost, because the consumer needs a vacuum, and it’s a good vacuum, so why wouldn’t the consumer make the purchase?

    Of course no salesman would be dumb enough to correct the customer. But, say, a lawyer would be, and then would become outraged at being corrected themselves, thus unintentionally proving my point. See, people don’t like being corrected, isn’t that right kids? When you correct people they become defensive. Isn’t that right, kids? Are you following? Should I slow down?

    Wait, you’re not annoyed at my condescension are you? I mean, I still have a vacuum cleaner to sell you. And the fact that I’m treating you like dull children won’t factor into your decision at all. Right?

    4
  7. Michael Reynolds says:

    Just bought. a house and listed our condo. The realtor did a good job getting us the house, saved us 100K. But then, as I was driving her to the title company she revealed she’s an anti-vaxxer. I told her it was bullshit and she quickly retreated.

    Logically this has nothing to do with the sale. In fact, she’s exactly the right person to sell the condo now. So. . . we’re going to take it off the market then re-list it later with a different agent. Why? Because I don’t like her.

    She’s desperate for a glowing Yelp review. Is she going to get it? No. Even though she saved me 100K. Why? Because I don’t like her.

    See, that’s how humans are. Also voters, almost all of them humans.

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  8. drj says:

    @Michael Reynolds:

    Wait, you’re not annoyed at my condescension are you? I mean, I still have a vacuum cleaner to sell you. And the fact that I’m treating you like dull children won’t factor into your decision at all. Right?

    What annoys me is that you argue political strategy based on imaginary scenarios in your head.

    AOC is more or less the figurehead of leftie Dems, no?

    How many times has she pushed LatinX on us? How many times has she corrected people because they used the word “slave” instead of “enslaved?”

    So, instead of making her own points she first has to distance herself from some randos on BlueSky?

    Seriously, what is wrong with you? Why do you insist on accepting some stupid Fox News stereotype as representative of progressivism?

    (And apart from this, since there is a time and place for everything, I can totally see that sometimes it would make sense to talk about “enslaved” instead of “slaves.” After all, it does reveal a thing or two. It’s pretty childish on your part to want to police this.)

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  9. Gustopher says:

    Oh god he’s still at it.

    2
  10. gVOR10 says:

    @Michael Reynolds: @DK: Looks like we’re continuing spats from yesterday’s forum. Being an engineer, let me take a shot at salvaging something useful. A few introductory observations. First, Murc’s Law is the widely held fallacy that only Democrats have agency in our politics. A corallary seems to be that if Ds are tagged as X, they must have pushed X. Second, most salespeople are successful because they have a good product to sell. Third, one of the management fads that can be useful is Root Cause Analysis.

    LatinX was the example used yesterday. It’s trivia, but to the extent Ds are tagged as pro LatinX, is that because of their vocal support for LatinX, or because GOPs portrayed them as pro-LatinX?

    I share your frustration, Michael, in that Ds really do have the better product. Better economic results, diplomatic results, even military results. More Truth, Justice, and the American Way. But Ds seem unable to sell against the lying competition. I assume you’d rather we didn’t lie. I also assume you’d rather we didn’t persecute minorities, including gender.

    You get to scratch your pet peeves, I do too. The root cause is branding. (One could go deeper, but not unless I have some time on my hands later.) GOPs, who are the party of the economic elite, have succeeded in branding themselves as the party of real Americans. I’ve never voted for a GOP in my life, and couldn’t tell you in 20 words or less what the Dem brand is. At least not any positive version. My root cause diagnosis is confirmed by surveys finding the word most commonly used to describe Dems is “weak”. Ds have allowed GOPs to define them.

    You’re a very good creative, and salesperson, Michael. What’s your advice to anyone with clout who may read this, my favorite blog? How do we salvage the image of the Dem Party. What’s the image, the tribal affiliation, the brand? On a bumper sticker? Quick position statements? And the target audience isn’t OTB commenters, it’s the low info “independents”.

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  11. DK says:

    @drj:

    Seriously, what is wrong with you?

    Extremely Online Syndrome aka Twitterbrain. Some live in an alternate reality of Elon Musk’s creation, so it’s unsurprising when they start to sound as unhinged as Apartheid Clyde himself. The head-scratching hypocrisy of whining about word policing while policing words is just the iceberg’s tip of the megalomania.

    We’ve seen this happen to our elders before with Fox News and with Facebook, and now TikTok, Twitter et al are also sucking a notable minority of screenagers down into the snake pit.

    Again, if they were my therapy clts, they’d be prescribed to turn off the phones, go outside, get some sun on their face and some grass on their feet — thus beginning to reorient their starving brains back towards real people and away from Chinese and Russian automated bot farm troll propaganda.

    Current polling in key races indicates Dems should stay on how the warmongering Putin-puppet paedofile Trump and his incompetent Rethuglikkklans are destroying the economy and our democratic rights. And not delve into the tangents of the terminally online. The same way a happy couple might cross the street to avoid a dirty unhoused man with with wild hair, tattered clothes, and a matted grey beard yelling “LatinX!” and “Wokeness!!” from the sidewalk beneath a marquee advertising $5.99 gas next to diesel shortages.

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  12. DK says:

    @gVOR10:

    Looks like we’re continuing spats from yesterday’s forum.

    Is it a spat tho, really? Or are we just reporting to Mom that Dad’s drunk at 10am again?

    You’re a very good creative, and salesperson

    [*muffled guffaw*] The comic talent around here continues to impress. No cap.

  13. charontwo says:

    Wow! Discussion of real interesting stuff like pronouns and buzzwords.

    In other news, looks like activity ready to heat up elsewhere.

    Wajeeh Lion

    Summarizing:

    The aggregated data confirms that the global strategic environment is tightly coupled, characterized by cascading regional escalations. The withdrawal of U.S. logistical assets and high-level executive coordination strongly suggest an imminent shift toward kinetic resolution in the Middle East. Across all theaters, sovereign infrastructure has become the primary target of asymmetric warfare. The proven effectiveness of mass-drone swarms in degrading energy and industrial nodes dictates that allied defense architectures must immediately prioritize the hardening of civilian grids against saturation attacks.

    One of the various situations or theaters mentioned:

    Open-source flight tracking data (ADS-B and Flightradar24) monitoring U.S. Air Force Air Mobility Command reveals a massive logistical surge from late January through the first week of May 2026. Over 112 strategic heavy-lift aircraft deployed materiel into the region. These operations utilized Boeing C-17A Globemaster IIIs (77-ton payload) and Lockheed C-5M Super Galaxies (127-ton payload), originating from Ramstein Air Base and Spangdahlem Air Base in Germany. They operated round-trip flights into forward hubs including Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the UAE. This airlift indicates the deployment of heavy mechanized equipment, theater ballistic missile defense systems (THAAD and Patriot batteries), and specialized personnel. The deployment of Boeing RC-135W Rivet Joint signals intelligence aircraft and MQ-4C Triton unmanned aerial systems points to intensive battlespace mapping.

    In the immediate lead-up to May 17, 2026, a sharp collapse in U.S. military airlift activity occurred. Within a 24-hour window, the number of active heavy transport aircraft plummeted from a sustained average of over 27 aircraft to a mere seven, which were observed holding at secure, rear-echelon bases. This abrupt cessation aligns perfectly with U.S. military doctrine regarding force protection and asset exfiltration prior to kinetic strikes. C-17 and C-5M fleets are highly vulnerable, low-density/high-demand assets. Once the requisite combat power is positioned, military planners systematically exfiltrate these slow-moving transports out of the theater to protect them from retaliatory ballistic missiles or drone swarms. The verified absence of these assets serves as a definitive early-warning indicator that the theater architecture is fully primed for direct military confrontation.

    Also this, signaling, sending a message:

    On Sunday, May 17, 2026, an unmanned aerial vehicle successfully penetrated the airspace of the United Arab Emirates and struck the perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant in the Al Dhafra region of Abu Dhabi. The strike ignited a fire within an external electrical generator located outside the inner security perimeter of the four-reactor complex. The blaze was suppressed without personnel casualties. The UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation (FANR) confirmed that the facility’s essential cooling and containment systems remained uncompromised. All four APR1400 reactor units operated normally, and environmental monitoring confirmed no radiological leaks.

    The Barakah facility, constructed with South Korean technological assistance, supplies approximately 25% of the UAE’s electricity and is the first commercial nuclear power station on the Arabian Peninsula. The targeting of this facility marks an unprecedented escalation, bringing a nuclear reactor site into the crosshairs of offensive proxy warfare.

    While official attribution was withheld, the strike exhibits the hallmarks of Iranian strategic signaling, likely executed by proxy forces such as the Houthi movement or the Islamic Resistance in Iraq. The UAE hosts Israeli Iron Dome missile defense batteries and U.S. Air Force assets, including MQ-4C Triton drones, at the nearby Al Dhafra Air Base. By executing a strike that caused psychological disruption without a mass-casualty radiological catastrophe, the orchestrators demonstrated their capability to penetrate Emirati airspace at will. This action operates as extreme kinetic leverage, designed to fracture the Gulf-U.S. coalition by demonstrating that the global energy supply and sovereign infrastructure of American allies will be held hostage if the blockade continues.

    Looks like some kinetic stuff be happening soon

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  14. charontwo says:

    @charontwo:

    This observation might be relevant:

    Wajeeh Lion (different linky)

    Critically, massive intelligence gaps threaten U.S. strategy. Despite CENTCOM’s claims of a 90 percent destruction of Iran’s defense industry, leaked classified U.S. intelligence indicates Iran retains 70 percent of its pre-war missile stockpile and has rebuilt 30 of 33 launch sites along the Strait. Furthermore, Iranian forces continue to operate effectively under decentralized “commander’s intent,” rendering decapitation strikes ineffective, while the power dynamics between Mojtaba Khamenei and IRGC commander Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr remain opaque. Finally, the extent to which Chinese commercial satellite providers supplied targeting data to Iran during base strikes remains unconfirmed. Until these discrepancies are resolved, the United States risks a catastrophic miscalculation of the adversary’s surviving capabilities.

    Trump is like a little kid who can’t sit still. He gets bored, impatient, playing with his toy soldiers and toy boats.

    3
  15. Mikey says:

    Are we ready for the $200 oil change? From an internal AutoZone memo:

    In the interest of total transparency there’s zero benefit in mincing words:

    Due to the unfolding situation in the Middle East, we’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.

    https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3mly43udoqk2c

  16. DK says:

    @Mikey: I’m ready for oil shocks to accelerate EV uptake and capital investment, and buildout of supporting infrastructure.

    Live by fossil fuels, die by fossil fuels.

    2
  17. Slugger says:

    Let me defend Mr. Reynolds a bit. The politicians running against Sharia law will not join in doing away with Tennessee’s book banning laws, and I’m sure that they would look favorably on opposing the gains that gay people have made. Logic and reason will not work against them. Some gut issues should be looked for. I’m not hopeful about this; Germans never turned against the Hitler regime and continued to fight when katyushas were in the streets of Berlin.

    4
  18. EddieInCA says:

    @DK:

    @Mikey: I’m ready for oil shocks to accelerate EV uptake and capital investment, and buildout of supporting infrastructure.

    Not in the USA until at least 2029, by which time China and a few other countries will be way, way ahead of the USA in terms of renewables. Trump and the current Republican Congress has set the USA back at least a decade, over the past 18 months, if not more.

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  19. Mikey says:

    @DK: I wish, but I’m sad to say I think @EddieInCA is right. We won’t see any meaningful advancement until the GOP is out of power, and most if not all of it will be playing catch-up. China is going to absolutely eat our lunch on this.

    In a saner world, America would be at the forefront of developing EVs and expanding EV infrastructure. But we’re not in that world, we’re in a world where a majority of voting Americans though putting a fascist fraud back in office was a good idea.

    6
  20. Mikey says:

    Holy shit! This is unbelievable. It’s real, happened at an airshow at Mountain Home AFB.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/comments/1tfyi09/mhafb_gunfighter_skies_air_show_crash_video/

    1
  21. Michael Cain says:

    @Mikey:
    Mountain Home AFB… Isn’t that the one where Qatar is building a training facility and housing planes and personnel?

    1
  22. Kathy says:
  23. Gregory Lawrence Brown says:

    @Kathy:..
    My neighbor and a friend of his were killed when his single engine, two seat airplane crashed in northern Illinois on the way to an air show in Wisconsin. He had piloted the plane several times to that air show. He had his own hanger at a small municipal airport in Southern Illinois. Don’t know what makes an airplane an antique but his bird was not new. I like to fly when I’m going somewhere. I once got in the backseat of four seater for the experience. The pilot thought it would be fun to do a loop. When we landed it was all l could do to keep from barfing. My neighbor kept asking me to joyride in his old two seater but I never would.
    John Johnson
    RIP

    1
  24. Jay L. Gischer says:

    That was spectacular, for sure.

    Once, at an airshow I was attending, an ultralight doing a stunt routine misjudged his distance to the ground and lawn darted. The pilot was reported in serious condition at a hospital when I left the show, I don’t really know the outcome.

  25. dazedandconfused says: