The conference championship games produced some surprises:
- #1 Ohio State narrowly lost to #2 Indiana in the Big Ten
- #9 Alabama lost big to #3 Georgia to win the SEC
- unranked 7-5 Duke beat #17 Virginia to win the ACC
This will leave the committee some tough choices.
The rankings going into the weekend:
1 Ohio State 12-0
2 Indiana 12-0
3 Georgia 11-1
4 Texas Tech 11-1
5 Oregon 11-1
6 Ole Miss 11-1
7 Texas A&M 11-1
8 Oklahoma 10-2
9 Alabama 10-2
10 Notre Dame 10-2
11 BYU 11-1
12 Miami 10-2
Complicating matters is that, while it’s a 12-team field, the top five conference champions are guaranteed a spot. Because only three of the conference champions (Indiana, Georgia, and Texas Tech) are in the top 12, the 11th- and 12th-ranked teams will be left out of the tournament.
Because this is only the second year of this format, we really don’t have much precedent to rely on.
Under the four-team playoff, which lasted from 2014 to 2023, the conference championships were effectively a play-in. There were five so-called Power Conferences and only four spots. So, the four top-ranked conference champions usually got into the tournament, unless one of the non-champions (Notre Dame, which is not in a conference, or team that either lost or didn’t qualify for its conference title game) was considered “demonstrably better.”
With the expanded field, though, the conference championship games became a competitive liability. They were another chance to lose a game and/or get key players injured while teams that didn’t qualify could back into the tournament while resting up.
Because they are so lucrative, however, the conference commissioners wanted to save them. So, they guaranteed that the top four champions, regardless of ranking, got the top four seeds and a bye. That lasted precisely one year, as the ludicrousness of 9th-ranked Boise State and and 12th-ranked Arizona State getting byes over much stronger teams were too much to bear.
Additionally, the committee made it clear that teams wouldn’t be punished for participating in the extra game. So, when 16th-ranked Clemson upset 10th-ranked SMU in the ACC title game, thus “stealing” a bid, SMU only dropped one spot, staying in the tournament.
So, back to this year:
How far will Ohio State, the committee’s top team all year, drop?
ESPN’s Heather Dinich, whose entire beat for years has been shadowing the committee, believes they will drop just one spot to the 2-seed. Personally, I would drop them to 4th, behind conference champs Georgia and Texas Tech.
Will far will Alabama fall?
In the penultimate rankings, the committee moved Alabama, which had been ranked #10 the previous week, ahead of Notre Dame. This was interpreted as them saying that, even if Alabama were to lose, they would still remain in the tournament, dropping to no lower than 10th. (Remember, the 11th- and 12th- ranked teams will be left out in favor of much lower-ranked conference champions.)
Alas, Alabama lost by three touchdowns. (Granted, the last was a function of a desperation 4th-down attempt failing, giving Georgia an incredibly short field.)
Realistically, Alabama showed it doesn’t belong in the playoff. Even granting that several key players were injured, it’s just not the same team it was earlier in the season.
But there’s also the fairness issue: Alabama had to play an extra game that Notre Dame, Miami, and three teams that finished behind them in the SEC standings (there was a four-way tie at 7-1) didn’t. Punishing them for the loss seriously undermines the value of making the championship game.
Will the committee reassess Notre Dame and Miami?
Notre Dame lost a close game to Miami early in the year. They have the same record. Yet, in every rankings release, the committee has judged Notre Dame to be a significantly better team than Miami on the basis that Notre Dame lost two close games to top-notch opponents (including Miami!) while Miami had worse losses. It’s quite possible that the Alabama loss re-opens that conversation, giving Miami a chance to make the top 10.
Will 5-loss Duke make the playoff over a second Group of 6 team?
Almost everyone thinks the answer to this is No. But it’s also true that the ACC is a far, far stronger conference than the Sun Belt and the American. It’s absurd enough to include one of Tulane and James Madison. Are we really inviting both?
Best vs. Most Deserving?
Since its establishment at the advent of the four-team playoff, the committee has been charged with selecting the “best” teams rather than the “most deserving.” In reality—and, righly, in my view—it has split the difference. The games have to matter, so the fact that a team with multiple losses has a better roster and would be favored by Vegas against a team with no losses can’t be decisive. At the same time, we all understand that not all conferences or schedules are created equal. So, there’s inevitably subjectivity involved.
Dinich’s prediction:
- Indiana
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Notre Dame
- Alabama
MiamiBYU- Tulane
- James Madison
How I’d rank them (given the requirement for five conference champions):
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Texas Tech
- Ohio State
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oregon
- Oklahoma
- Miami
- Alabama
Notre DameBYU- Tulane
- Duke
I honestly don’t think there’s much separation among the top four teams; a case could be made for ranking them in any order. Indiana played a weaker schedule but is undefeated. The narrow win against Ohio State (which lost on a missed chip shot field goal) should and will give them the top seed. I’d rank the conference champs ahead of Ohio State.
The next four are similarly interchangable. I’d rank Oregon lower than the committee (and Dinich, who is predicting, not ranking) on the basis of schedule strength.
Notre Dame is almost certainly a better team at this point than Miami and Alabama. But the head-to-head against Miami has to matter. And, while Alabama now has a third loss, I’m not punishing them for playing a game neither Notre Dame nor Miami had to play.
Finally, the James Madison Dukes are arguably more deserving than the Duke Blue Devils, who are likely better. But they played zero ranked teams and, indeed, only one Power Four opponent, Louisville. And they lost that game by two touchdowns. Meanwhile, while Duke has played a Power Four schedule and won their conference championsip. They actually lost on the road to Tulane, so I’d seed them last.
How I think the committee will decide:
- Indiana
- Georgia
- Ohio State
- Texas Tech
- Oregon
- Ole Miss
- Texas A&M
- Oklahoma
- Alabama
- Miami
Notre DameBYU- Tulane
- James Madison
While Dinich has far better insight than I do to how they’re thinking, I do think they will value Georgia’s dominating performance in the SEC Championship—which avenged their only loss of the season—and catapult them ahead of Ohio State. While I think Texas Tech deserves to move up, too, I don’t think that will happen.
While the committee has said all year that they think Notre Dame is better than Miami despite the head-to-head, I think the pressure is mounting to flip that. And, again, I don’t think they’re going to drop the SEC Championship Game loser out of a 12-team field that includes three SEC teams that sat home watching the game.
And, no, I don’t think they’ll vote a five-loss Duke team into the tournament.
We shall know not long after noon.
UPDATE: The committee wound up with a hybrid of Dinich’s and my predictions:
After being on the outside looking in last year, Alabama and Miami can breathe a sigh of relief as the Crimson Tide and Hurricanes were the last at-large teams selected — ahead of Notre Dame — for the 12-team College Football Playoff field announced Sunday.
Undefeated Big Ten champion Indiana (13-0) earned the No. 1 seed, while two Group of 5 teams — American Conference champ Tulane (11-2) and Sun Belt victor James Madison (12-1) — were selected to the CFP field.
In addition to the Hoosiers, No. 2 seed Ohio State (12-1), No. 3 Georgia (12-1) and No. 4 Texas Tech (12-1) were awarded first-round byes, guaranteed to the four highest teams in the rankings.
The final rankings were:
1 Indiana 13-0
2 Ohio State 12-1
3 Georgia 12-1
4 Texas Tech 12-1
5 Oregon 11-1
6 Ole Miss 11-1
7 Texas A&M 11-1
8 Oklahoma 10-2
9 Alabama 10-3
10 Miami 10-211 Notre Dame 10-2
12 BYU 11-2
20 Tulane 11-2
24 James Madison 12-1
So,
- Ohio State (as Dinich predicted) only dropped to the 2-seed despite Georgia and Texas Tech being conference champs with the same record
- Alabama (as I predicted) dropped not at all, despite a blowout in a game others didn’t have to play
- Miami’s (as I predicted) head-to-head ultimately doomed Notre Dame
- And (as we both predicted) James Madison took the final spot over ACC champ Duke
