Outside the Beltway

Outside the Beltway

photo by SLT

Monday Tabs

Steven L. Taylor
20

,

20 responses to “Monday Tabs”

  1. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    Re Fed Chairman Powell:

    https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/

    Dollar currently off 1.3%

    https://www.investing.com/indices/indices-futures

    Stock futures not looking so good.

    1
  2. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    I posted a Drezner piece on Pete Hegseth over in today’s forum thread.

  3. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    @charontwo:

    Markets may be overreacting. Powell’s tenure is protected by Humphrey’s Executor, which I think unlikely to be reversed by SCOTUS.

    1
  4. Michael Cain Avatar
    Michael Cain

    @charontwo:

    Powell’s tenure is protected by Humphrey’s Executor, which I think unlikely to be reversed by SCOTUS.

    But we have reached the territory of “Justice Roberts has issued his opinion. What’s he going to do when DOGE declares Powell terminated, changes the locks (of various sorts), reassigns staff, and refuses to pay his expense account?”

    4
  5. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    @Michael Cain:

    What’s he going to do when DOGE declares Powell terminated,

    The downside might look a bit like this:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

    SCOTUS is not so out of touch as to be unaware of this sort of problem.

  6. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @charontwo: Once upon a time, Roe v Wade was “settled law,” too. It may not be wise to presume what the Supremes will and will not overturn any longer.

    “Abandon hope, all ye who enter here.” (A new motto for the plaque on the Statue of Liberty.)

    5
  7. Jay L Gischer Avatar
    Jay L Gischer

    Well, NBC News seems to be the one breaking big stories right now. Good for them.

    1
  8. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    @just nutha:

    Judging by the 1 AM alacrity of SCOTUS blocking deportations in TX a couple of days ago, they are getting a bit spooked by the Trump administration court defiance. I think their Trump accommodation has reached its sell-by date.

  9. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @charontwo:
    @just nutha:

    IMO the Crow & Leo Court has something more important than the rapist’s behind to protect: the value of the stock market and the economy overall. For this they will risk the ire of the cult base.

    It’s not so much they care about Powell, or who heads the Fed at all, but the effect removing the head of nominally independent central bank will have on the economy. Not to mention what incompetent doofus in over his head the rapist will replace him with.

    It should be noted most similar or equivalent positions in most countries, and in all high income countries, are set up with similar levels of political independence as the head of the Fed. there are very good reasons for this.

    To update the old Carville Dictum: It’s always the economy, stupid.

    2
  10. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    @Kathy:

    I had that in mind, Kathy. It’s still morning and dollar currently down 1.1%, S&P 500 2.9%.

    As I said upthread,

    SCOTUS is not so out of touch as to be unaware of this sort of problem.

    Which is why I think Humprey’s Executor is safe.

    I can’t get a read on overseas markets, as they are closed for Easter Monday.

  11. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @charontwo: From your lips to God’s ears. Color me skeptical how much the Supremes care about shaking down political opponents.

    2
  12. just nutha Avatar
    just nutha

    @just nutha: For clarity’s sake, I’ll add skepticism about economic consequences. If Crow and Leo reach out, that might change things, but they may well be arrogant enough to believe they have Musk-level immunity from economic consequences of stupid policy.

  13. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    As to the Hestegh matter, it may be the felon values his leaks on Telegram, which should include important people like Mad Vlad and his advisors.

    I don’t know he leaks on telegram as he does on Signal, but it’s the logical inference. If he uses Telegram at all.

  14. Beth Avatar
    Beth

    @charontwo:
    @just nutha:

    Whether Humphries Executor is safe or not (it’s not) and whether Leo/Crow think they’ll come out on top are both completely irrelevant.

    The whole system both intra and inter-nationally, the whole system is predicated on 2 things: absolute stability and Fed independence. Those two things are inextricably linked to each other and the whole fucking system.

    Look at it this way, the deficits always exploded during Republican administrations because of their insane spending on wars and tax cuts. The world was willing to finance this because the world (and I include the U.S. in this) was willing to give the U.S. unlimited amounts of money because they knew the U.S. would be stable and pay its debts. Trump actually attempting to fire Powell blows that the fuck out of the water. There is no way to stuff that genie back into that bottle.

    You could even assume that Powell could get a court order the same day freezing the firing and it won’t matter at all. Fed Stability and independence will be annihilated the second Trump does it and everything that happens after is irrelevant because the treasury market will die.

    Two related facts to this:

    1. Trump/MAGA/the GOP have proven that they are not only fanatics, but they have lost all grip on objective reality. They think they have absolutely won and it’s the end of history. They are idiots. The world knows this. The only people that don’t know this are idiot billionaires whole have convinced themselves that they are the actual masters of the universe and that they, through will and brilliance, control economics, physics, biology, and reality. They are profoundly stupid people that have been corrupted by stupid amounts of money.

    2. The GOP is working feverishly to pass a massive package of tax cuts whose only economic viability comes from massive cheap borrowing. Some of them understand that they have to make spending cuts to make it even start to work. Some of that group even understands that to make those cuts actually work they are going to fist fuck their constituents. The rest is coming from borrowing and ALL of them assume that the world will simply continue to buy Treasuries and Dollars as if they have no other choice.

    I am certain that there are big money people around the world who are looking at this like I am. The second that Trump fires Powell it’s all over. Part of Trump understands this. Not on an intellectual level. He gets it on his criminal level. He understands that the system has to exist for him to game it. That’s why he’s lashing out like a toddler. He’s trying to talk himself into doing something he wants to do (consolidate more power) while he understands, not knows, understands, that the second he takes that power it dies.

    Humphries Executor? Who gives a shit, it’s dead law. The old world is dead. We are watching the new one being born.

    3
  15. Beth Avatar
    Beth

    Let me add, notice how Powell handles the threat of getting fired. He just repeats some version of “he can’t do that.” Nothing more, nothing less. Powell knows that if he were to says something like “Trump can’t fire me cause the bond markets will die” because if he tells the truth he’ll kill the bond markets himself. That way everyone can pretend reality isn’t reality until they can’t.

    The system that was built was so resilient and productive that it’s absorbing huge shocks basically daily at this point. I’m gonna guess that soon enough we’re going to hit the event horizon on this shit and then it’s gonna get real bad.

    4
  16. Matt Avatar
    Matt

    The Food and Drug Administration is drawing up plans that would end most of its routine food safety inspections work, multiple federal health officials tell CBS News, and effectively outsource this oversight to state and local authorities.

    Oh boy howdy I can imagine how that goes. I’ve worked at places that had mold growing in and around food/drink related hardware and the store would pass with inspections with a B+. Just because the local inspector was being bribed by the owner. This place would use grey hamburger and other way past use dates. One of several places I’ve worked at where local inspectors were either bribed or didn’t give a fuck. Can’t wait for even more outbreaks of ecoli and other fun stuff…

    1
  17. Matt Avatar
    Matt

    The Food and Drug Administration is drawing up plans that would end most of its routine food safety inspections work, multiple federal health officials tell CBS News, and effectively outsource this oversight to state and local authorities.

    Oh boy howdy I can imagine how that goes. I’ve worked at places that had mold growing in and around food/drink related hardware and the store would pass inspections with a B+. Just because the local inspector was being bribed by the owner. This place would use grey hamburger and other way past use dates. One of several places I’ve worked at where local inspectors were either bribed or didn’t give a fuck. Can’t wait for even more outbreaks of ecoli and other fun stuff…

    1
  18. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    @Beth:

    The federal debt exceeds annual GDP by a significant margin, and debt interest is a big chunk of the budget. If interest rates stay elevated as the debt rolls over, the U.S. has big trouble.

    Federal revenue will decline as Trump tanks the economy, and China is currently annoyed enough to help with the tanking.

    We look to be living in interesting times.

    The people on SCOTUS are not stupid, (although a couple are delusional cranks), they have stock portfolios too, they understand what happens if Humphrey’s Executor goes fuckity-bye.

    1
  19. Kathy Avatar
    Kathy

    @Beth:
    @charontwo:

    I wonder whether the spineless caucus (aka the late Republican Party) will dare impeach and remove the felon if he tanks the economy.

    Related, I’ve been meaning to ask: if the US bond market (treasury notes) collapses, what happens with government bonds in other countries? Would capital flee there? Say UK, Canada, Europe, maybe Asia and Latin America? Or only to countries with low or lowish US treasury exposure? Or would money be stored under the mattress instead?

    Also, what if Powell resigns? Not now. If eh resigns now it will be the same as if he were fired. But if the felon can be kept from escalating the fight for a few weeks, then Powell rationalizes some exit before the rapist takes up his whining again?

    1
  20. charontwo Avatar
    charontwo

    I wonder whether the spineless caucus (aka the late Republican Party) will dare impeach and remove the felon if he tanks the economy.

    IMO unlikely. Any Senator would expect that a vote to convict would cause a loss in his/her next primary election, the Trump cultists would be angered.

    Also, what if Powell resigns?

    Why would he? Trump can never be satisfied, he always tries for more as Columbia University is experiencing.

    1

Trending