Were a presidential election being held today, President Barack Obama would beat former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin 55 to 42, a new CNN poll shows.
President Barack Obama’s job approval may have slid — 51 percent in a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. survey, 46 today in the Gallup daily track, 45 yesterday.
But given a choice of the first-term Democratic president and the former governor of Alaska, 55 percent of those surveyed by CNN pick Obama, 42 percent Sarah Palin.
That may have a lot to do with how many people view Palin, the Republican Party’s 2008 nominee for vice president, as qualified to serve as president: 30 percent. More than two thirds, 69 percent, say the Republican is unqualified for the office.
Obama’s own personal favorable rating stands at 57 percent in the CNN survey, Palin’s at 39 percent. More, 55 percent, hold an unfavorable view of her.
It’s not surprising that a sitting president would win re-election over a polarizing figure who’s not currently running for president. Nor is it surprising that Obama is the favorite for 2012; re-electing presidents is our default position. Nor is it surprising that the overwhelming majority of Americans think Palin unqualified for the presidency: Survey after survey has shown that since the fall of 2008.
No, what’s interesting is that Palin is essentially maxing out the poll. That is, Obama’s total is precisely the 55 percent who hold an unfavorable view of Palin. Conversely, Palin is getting a third more of the “vote” than find her minimally qualified.
The Tribune’s Mark Silva opines,
A lot of this also may help to explain why Palin is pursuing television and book deals rther than the party’s 2012 nomination.
Maybe. That’s been my working assumption for awhile. If so, Palin is playing her hand brilliantly. Reports surfaced yesterday that she has earned $12 million since quitting the governorship last July. That’s not a bad consolation prize!
Oh, and Palin’s polling about the same as other Republican contenders.
A Republican widely viewed as likely to seek the 2012 GOP nomination, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, stands a little stronger against Obama in the CNN survey of registered voters: Obama 53 percent, Romney 45 percent. But none of the Republicans named in the survey — Arkansas’ Mike Huckabee, Romney, Palin and Georgia’s Newt Gingrich — draw more than one quarter of the support of the Republicans surveyed.
If the economy doesn’t turn around magnificently by the summer of 2012, Obama’s beatable. But I’m not sure who the Republicans can nominate someone who can do the job. Of those named, Romney is likely the best candidate. And that’s a sad statement, indeed.
