In the first poll since the start of the Democratic convention, Gallup gives Barack Obama what RealClearPolitics calls “a big bounce,” taking a six point lead over his rival, John McCain.
Democratic candidate Barack Obama has gained ground in the latest Gallup Poll Daily tracking average from Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, and now leads Republican John McCain among registered voters by a 48% to 42% margin.
The latest three-day Gallup Poll Daily tracking average (Aug. 25-27) is directly coincident with the first three days of the Democratic National Convention in Denver, and is no doubt beginning to reflect the typical convention “bounce” that Gallup has observed in most party conventions in recent decades.
Another way of looking at the same data is that the race continues to be a tie fluctuating within the range of normal sampling error:
Indeed, the only other national poll conducted during this period, Rasmussen‘s, shows Obama and McCain tied 47-47. And, unlike Gallup, Rasmussen samples likely voters rather than mere registered voters.
Now, I fully expect Obama to get a bounce here, probably in the range of 4-5 percent. Thus far, though, there’s no evidence that it’s happened.
