Outside the Beltway

My turn.

A low confidence Election Day forecast.

The guardrails may not hold this time.

A modest disturbance in the force.

Our immigration policy is out of sync with our economy.

On cows and windows.

Does it really all come down to Pennsylvania?

It could all come down to Pennsylvania.

Things continue to be tight, yet Harrisward.

Democrats suddenly have multiple paths to victory.

The Democrats are in a good place heading into their convention.

The reset is real.

We’re back to Square 1.

The slide continues.

More polling that contradicts the panic.

He’s doing better in all the swing states but one than in 2020.

A morally right but politically fraught move.

It all comes down to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

*Parenthetically, his opponent wouldn’t know the truth if it bit him on the ass.

Democratic strategists are complaining that Biden is being too honest.

The weirdness of this year’s polling gives the President’s team hope.

It’s depressingly short.

Presidential v. senatorial polling in swings states is just, well, odd.

The inevitable is all but official.

Data from the early primaries

Just in case there were any lingering questions about her chances.

What I’m reading but don’t have time to write about at length.

Or did it?

America’s weird system for choosing Presidents keeps getting weirder.

Abortion, an unrepresentative electorate, and candidate idiosyncracy ruled the off-off-year election.

Looking ahead to November 5, 2024

Bidenomics is dragging Biden’s approval.

The Emily’s list leader will be the first Black lesbian in the Senate.

The Establishment is desperate for an alternative that’s not coming.

Another call for letting kids be kids.

All states but one receive more in federal money than they pay out in taxes.

BuzzFeed, Disney, and others are making big cuts.

South Carolina and Georgia win! Iowa loses! New Hampshire whines!

There are at most eight toss-up states for the 2024 Presidential election.

The idiocy of Iowa and New Hampshire having outsized influence on who is elected President may be ending.

Democrats meet this week to set the 2024 primary calendar.

How much ticket-splitting was there in gubernatorial v. senatorial races this cycle?

The margins for 2024 are likely to be slim. But that hides a larger story.

One of these things is not like the other.

There was some quiet meddling going on.

The “America First” slate of candidates lost all but one contest.

With a win in Nevada, the party will retain at least 50 seats.

Well, kind of, but not really.

Adam Laxalt’s big lead is slowly erodiing.