President Donald Trump thanks the crowd after remarks at the Salute to America Celebration, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa. President Donald Trump thanks the crowd after remarks at the Salute to America Celebration, Thursday, July 3, 2025, at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, Iowa.

Trump Applies Madman Theory For Real

An unusual diplomatic approach.

Was Bombing Iran Legal, Redux

For all practical purposes, the Constitutional war powers have been stood on their head.

Ceasefire in Iran War

This phase seems to be over. [Or maybe not!]

How Effective Were U.S. Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities?

Maximalist claims are almost surely overstated.

Was Bombing Iran Legal?

No. But it won’t matter.

President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the situation room during the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites. President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio in the situation room during the bombing of Iran's nuclear sites.

U.S. Bombs Three Iranian Nuke Sites

The war is on.

Why Might Iran Want a Nuke?

Is dropping it on Israel the most likely reason?

Israel-Iran War: What’s the End State?

Thinking about possible outcomes.

Israel May Attack Iran Soon

A major escalation in Middle East tensions is forecast.

Joseph Nye, 1937-2025

The scholar-statesman best known for coining “soft power” has died at 88.

I Have No Sense, And I Must Rule

A day of AI, tariffs, and world historic stupidity.

DOGE is a Farce

Unfortunately it is a destructive one.

Nuking The Federal Workforce

The people who safeguard our nuclear weapons and put out forest fires have been fired.

The Undecided Voter: Iconoclast Edition

Alan Dershowitz is trying to make up his mind.

Iran’s Intent and Israel’s Next Move

Two related questions.

Red Lines

The perils of speaking loudly while carrying a small stick.

US Capitol Rotunda US Capitol Rotunda

Congress Spills the Beans on Russian Capability

The White House is doing damage control.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Sept. 19, 2023 Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Ramstein Air Base, Germany, Sept. 19, 2023

The Case of the Missing SECDEF

A truly weird story.

A Bad Year For The West?

The BBC’s security correspondent thinks so.

Chotiner Eviscerates Koppel on Kissinger

After giving a softball interview, he apparently expected one in return.

Henry Kissinger at 100

A rare man and a rare milestone.

Putin’s Failed Gambit

He’s turned Russia from a G-8 member to an international pariah.

Zelensky Privately Wants to Attack Russia Targets

Leaked intelligence intercepts take us inside the Ukrainian war room.

Russia-Ukraine War at One Year

Putin is losing but no one is winning.

Can Bloggers Be Replaced by AI?

You be the judge.

Ukraine: Too Much Is Not Enough

The appetite for more resources approaches infinity.

We’re Doomed! Doomed!

We’re all gonna die, folks.

Ash Carter, 1954-2022

A brilliant national security leader is gone too soon.

Putin’s Nuclear Gambit

The threat is not idle and the options for responding are not good.

Regime Change in Russia?

Can the unsustainable be sustained?

Putin’s Desperate Gambit

A phony annexation doesn’t hide that he’s badly losing his illegal war.

Ukraine War at a Turning Point?

There’s plenty of reason for optimism.

David Kay, 1940-2022

A man made famous for discovering Iraq’s WMD program was virtually nonexistent is gone at 82.

Politics, Law, and the Mar-a-Lago Search

That’s some catch, that Catch-22.

Dems in Midterms: You’re Saying There’s a Chance?

A 2020 blowout has long been presumed. But maybe it won’t happen.

Biden Pleads for Regime Change in Russia

The President commits a Kinsley gaffe.

Putin’s War Gets Closer to NATO

Strikes near the Polish border show the real possibility of escalation.

Very Quickly, Putin’s War Is Likely To Get Even Uglier

The disintegrating military situation is leading to escalating brutality.

Is Putin Predictably Irrational?

Putin is a monster, but he may also be just as irrational as the rest of us.

Is Putin “Irrational”?

Addressing an analytical pet peeve (and, more importantly, correcting a mistake).

Deterring The Deterrers

Deterring Russia is a matter of principle.

Putin Invades Ukraine in Defiance of West

The much-anticipated escalation has happened. Now to see how the United States and its allies respond.

US Waives Iran Sanctions as Deal Nears

The Biden administration is close to repairing the damage Trump caused.

Saudi Arabia Building Ballistic Missiles with Chinese Help

Our ostensibly ally is working with our chief adversary against our interests.

Biden and Putin to Talk Ukraine

Russia may invade Ukraine again. The United States would prefer otherwise.

US-France Submarine Contretemps

American cheese will henceforth be known as liberté cheese. And not because of the metric system.

Milley and Woodward Revisited

A follow-up to yesterday’s analysis.

Milley’s Soft Coup

While well-intentioned, the Chairman’s actions were illegal and dangerous.