Trump Leads Biden Going into Tonight’s Debate
He's doing better in all the swing states but one than in 2020.
The WaPo data analytics gang looks at the latest polls in an attempt to tell us “Who is ahead in 2024 presidential polls right now?” Despite a rebounding economy, conviction on 34 felony counts, and general sleaziness, they assess that
Donald Trump is leading in 5 of the 7 battleground states that are most likely to determine the outcome of the election. The polls are particularly close in the first three battlegrounds below, meaning our average is within a normal-sized polling error of 3.5 points and either a Trump or President Biden victory is plausible. In the other four battlegrounds, the candidates’ polling leads are larger, but the race is still close.
Here’s a snapshot of where the states in question stand, compared to the 2020 results:
Assuming the polling is a real reflection of where the race stands, it’s noteworthy that, with the exception of Wisconsin, Trump is doing better in all seven states than he did in 2020.
Independently, Nate Silver launches his revised election forecasting model and tells us “The presidential election isn’t a toss-up.” The actual numbers and part of his analysis is behind a paywall and much of what he includes in the linked post amounts to throat-clearing—musings about the nature of modeling, assumptions, and the like. Still, he’s pretty confident:
There are a lot of other models out there, which show Trump with anything from a 50 percent chance (538’s new model) to a 71 percent chance (the Economist) of winning. I have disagreements with those models — how couldn’t I, given the amount of time I’ve spent on this particular problem? But I don’t think any of them are unreasonable. It’s possible — in fact, rather likely, since there are several of them — that one of those models will prove to be better calibrated than mine over the long run. Although I do think it’s noteworthy that — self-aggrandizing aside ahead! — the Silver Bulletin model is the only one that has actually reached anything resembling the long run, with a strong out-of-sample track record over 16 years now.
(For those who missed the news: Silver and much of his old team were let go by Disney a year or so ago as part of that company’s massive downsizing. Silver retains the proprietary model but Disney now owns the FiveThirtyEight brand.)
Moreover, he wants you to know,
One issue is that I’m not only a statistician/analyst/pundit/journalist/degenerate gambler or whatever-the-fuck you want to call me — but also an American citizen who cares about political outcomes for a combination of selfish and altruistic reasons. Now that I’m on my own — not tied to some corporate behemoth like The New York Times or Disney — I feel freer to be transparent about my preferences. Although I have plenty of disagreements with progressives these days, my political values haven’t changed that much. I don’t want Trump to win the election, and I’d never consider voting for him.
[…]
I think it’s important to be up front, because I’ve been rather lucky in one sense in my election forecasting career. I began making election forecasts in 2008, and in literally every presidential year since then, I haven’t really had to deal with a conflict between what I personally wanted to see happen and what my forecast said. This year, I do have that conflict. The candidate who I honest-to-God think has a better chance (Trump) isn’t the candidate I’d rather have win (Biden).
Wouldn’t it be suspicious if, in the first presidential cycle where the Democrat has consistently trailed in polls since 2004, I suddenly started telling you that you should trust vibes rather than polls? Or if I chucked out my heretofore well-performing model for a new one that had Biden favored — or at least had the election as a toss-up?
Which gets us back to why he thinks Trump is clearly leading the race for 270 Electoral votes, rather than it being a toss-up:
[T]he reasons that Trump would win have gradually become somewhat more compelling than the reasons for Biden. Emphasis on gradually and somewhat. Biden clearly could win in November. He won the same matchup four years ago. Not only would he be within a normal-sized polling error of Trump if the election were held today, but there are still four-and-a-half-months to go.
Still, the items on the “reasons to think Trump might win” checklist have proven to be more robust. There’s Biden’s age, which voters have extremely persistent concerns about. There’s the very high inflation of mid-2021 through mid-2023 — which has considerably abated, but still is reflected in much higher prices than when Biden took office. There’s the fact that the global mood is pessimistic and that incumbents have been getting crushed everywhere around the world. Plus, some of the factors I thought would be an advantage for Biden haven’t proven to be. There’s less of a fundraising gap than I expected, for instance, and I’m not sure that Biden has run the smarter tactical campaign.
What’s happening this year isn’t quite the “unthinkability bias” that [RealClearPolitics founder Sean] Trende wrote about eight years ago after Brexit. Trump was already president for four years, so it’s hardly unthinkable. And I don’t know many Democrats who deny that he could become president again; instead, most are very worried. But you’ll sometimes hear exasperated comments along the lines of how can Biden possibly be losing? — not as a way of questioning the polls so much as questioning the wisdom of the electorate. (Or the media.)
Well, here’s how. Biden has the lowest approval ratings of anyone running for re-election since either George H.W. Bush or Jimmy Carter, depending on how you squint at the numbers. The reasons he might lose are overdetermined. (I haven’t even mentioned things like immigration or the war in Gaza.) Would it really be surprising if he’s become an underdog, even if it’s against a candidate as flawed as Trump?
While I still believe—as I did in 2016 and 2020—that Trump will ultimately lose, it honestly requires motivated reasoning to think he’s currently behind. I find it bizarre that anyone but the most dedicated Republican partisan supports him given everything we’ve learned about him over the last eight-plus years. But the polls are the polls and they have been largely unchanged for more than a year now.
But maybe that’s changing?
The news isn’t all bad for Biden. We do have him trending upward relative to a month ago. Biden probably has been helped by Trump’s conviction on felony charges related to hush money payments to the porn star Stormy Daniels — what sort of world are we living in that I can write a phrase like that about a presidential election?
Silver’s aggregates are slightly different from those used by WaPo but point in the same direction:
Alas . . .
But I don’t think the glass-half-full view is quite right:
- This is the most important complication: if Biden loses Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — and he trails badly in each — he’ll need to win all three of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and not just one of them. Even though these states are pretty heavily correlated, they aren’t perfectly correlated. Winning several different correlated bets is still hard. (Just ask the DraftKings how it makes so much money on same-game parlays.) And these states do have some differences with one another: Wisconsin is more rural, for instance, and Michigan has the largest Arab/Muslim/Palestinian population. In our simulations, Biden wins at least one of these states 54 percent of the time. But he wins all three of them in only 32 percent of simulations. This is the sort of precision that a model can provide that your intuition really can’t.
- Biden also has to hold on to states like New Hampshire and Virginia (and New Mexico and Minnesota and Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District) in the Blue Wall-saves-the-day scenario, and that’s not quite a sure thing given Biden’s mediocre polling elsewhere in the Northeast. This is less of a concern for him, though — conditional on winning Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania, Biden wins the Electoral College about 97 percent of the time in our simulations.
- In those Sunbelt swing states — meaning Georgia, Arizona and Nevada, where he won last time, and North Carolina, Florida and Texas, where he didn’t — Biden trails badly. Not so badly that he can’t win — the model gives him a 22 percent chance of eventually winning Arizona, for instance. But badly enough that he’s borderline out of the “normal range of polling error” scenarios and either needs a big polling error or for something fundamental to change about the race — even though it’s been exceptionally steady so far. Either of those things are possible — just not the outcome you’d bet on at even money. For now, he has nothing in the way of a reliable backup plan if any of the Rust Belt trio falls to Trump. It’s just not good for Biden that he trails by mid-single digits in high-quality poll after high-quality poll of states like Georgia and Nevada.
And there’s also a credible glass-half-empty view of Biden’s Rust Belt polling. In 2020, Michigan was 2.7 points to the right of the national average, Pennsylvania was 3.3 points to the right, and Wisconsin was 3.8 points to the right. So if you buy that Biden is down by a point or something nationally — or even if you think that that the race is tied or Biden is a half-point ahead — you’d expect him to be narrowly but meaningfully behind in these Rust Belt states under a uniform swing.
If Biden loses Virginia, which was a solidly Republican state in presidential elections when I moved there in 2002 but has voted Democrat the last four cycles, Trump will win in a blowout the likes of which we haven’t seen since 1988. I would bet substantial money that against that outcome. But I do think it highly likely that Trump wins historically red states that he narrowly lost last time, especially Georgia.
Indeed, I think Silver’s scenario, where Biden needs wins in all three of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, is pretty likely absent in some major development between now and November. And, given Trump’s amazing resiliency, losing very little support for things that would destroy any other politician, I don’t even know what would constitute a “major development” at this point.
And, again, the key thing is that this is 50 state contests, not a single national election:
[I]f the Electoral College/popular vote gap looks anything like it did in 2016 or 2020, you’d expect Biden to be in deep trouble if the popular vote is roughly tied. So if we’re being honest, pundits who obsess over whether Biden is 1 point ahead or behind in national polls are kind of missing the point. Because national polls being tied don’t make for a toss-up race — but instead one where Trump has a material advantage in the Electoral College. In fact, the race looks a lot like 2012 in reverse, when national polls were often close but the swing state polls consistently favored Obama and gave him the far more robust map.
Silver follows this with a long discourse explaining why he doesn’t think the relatively good economy or the traditional incumbency advantage warrant a significant adjustment from a polls-only view of the race. Essentially, he doesn’t think the economy is all that good and thinks the incumbency advantage has largely gone away because of partisan polarization. I’ll leave to the interested reader to click over for themselves for the more nuanced explanation.
The rest of the post is paywalled but several news organizations are either paying or have been given access to the remainder and the bottom line is this:
That’s a much narrower Electoral College win than 2016 despite a much closer popular vote. Again, I don’t have access to the state-by-state breakdowns.
We’re roughly four months from the election but, again, I expect changes at the margins. The two candidates are simply too well-known for many people to change their minds.
Let’s hope Joe brings his A game.
@Andy: Indeed. I strongly expect that this will be both the first and last debate of the cycle.
The disgusting part to me is the constant ignoring of what actually wins Trump his approval. “Going high” is a guaranteed L, not some sort of Respectable Alternative. It’s not what we teach our children, sure, but that’s not what wins in politics.
Trump’s felony convictions should be part of the opening statement – it neutralizes 100% of everything else. Trump wants to be tough on crime? Except his own, of course.
I will be voting for Joe Biden in November.
Since Mature Adult Republican Male™ convicted felon, private citizen Donald Trump makes me want to puke on a daily basis I will not be watching or listening to the “debate” tonight.
I don’t want to risk dehydration.
This morning WAPO has a very long, and frankly not very interesting, piece on how all over the country local MAGA voting officials are planning to obstruct certification of election results. I mention it here because it cites the still growing belief by GOPs that the 2020 election was stolen. Too often GOP fantasies are described as just falling from the sky, or consistent with Murc’s law, the inevitable result of something Ds did, e.g. GOP bigotry flows from Ds pushing identity politics or of course they want to ban abortion after Ds, in GOP’s common phrase, forced Roe down their throats.
Ds did absolutely nothing to cause GOP election fraud fantasies except win the 2020 prez election fair and square. It’s purely a construction of GOP pols and conservative media. As are CRT in grade school, the migrant crisis, Biden’s horrible economy, etc. The businessmen behind Goldwater’s campaign realized they could push their unpopular candidate the same way they pushed their breakfast cereals and cars. 60 years later it’s evolved to an aggressive conservative media abetted by a feckless MSM. The electorate believe the crazy stuff they believe because it’s been effectively sold to them.
And if, as James predicts above, tonight turns out to be the only debate, it will be effectively blamed on cheating by Biden and CNN, or Biden’s magic drugs, or anything except any failing on Trump’s part.
@gVOR10: I don’t know if I’m more worried about MAGA election officials, or open-carry insurrectionist-types that may hang around Democrat-leaning polling places in an effort to
monitorintimidate voters. I mean, do we need to be arming ourselves to counteract these buffoons?@James Joyner:
Interesting. Why?
My last thought reading that was that Trump would decline to participate in another debate. Not very interesting or unreasonable as propositions go, or would you disagree?
I’m trying to imagine a scenario where the debate changes things much. Trump is an incoherent, amoral pig. And his supporters are totally okay with that. Unless he breaks down on stage they’ll say he won the debate. I think the polling will stay pretty stable for the next four months. Hopefully enough people who won’t vote for Trump will be motivated to vote against him. That’s where we are as a country, to more than half of the electorate values and morality do not matter.
And I think Biden should at various points in the debate mention his felonies, the financial judgments against the Trump Organization, and most definitely the fact that a jury found that he sexually assaulted a woman. Remind people of that, especially in the context of being caught on camera joking about sexually assaulting women.
Some commenters here have speculated that Trump would back out of tonight’s “debate”.
He still has time.
@DK: @just nutha: Both men have more to lose than to gain from debating. If Biden manages, as I think he will, to be coherent he’ll likely be perceived as the winner. Why would he agree to a rematch? Conversely, were Trump perceived as the winner, why would he? They’ve already rejected the Debate Commission and the usual structure.
@SenyorDave: I don’t think debates ever have much impact on staunch supporters. It’s the elusive “ undecided voters “ and “double haters” who matter.
I always wondered how Germany could vote for a guy who staged a failed coup. Not wondering so much anymore.
@James Joyner:
In other words, this election will be decided almost entirely by people who are completely ignorant of the facts and cannot become better informed between now and election day because they get all of their information and opinions from disinformation campaigns.
Yeah, America is screwed.
I’m trying not to wear myself out with polls this early in the game. We’re at the equivalent of the day after the conference championships in the NFL. We know which teams will play the super bowl, but it’s too early to say who the winner will be.
@SenyorDave: I am not sure why you and others have such significant inability to decompose the electoral game – the hard core MAGA are not the game.
It is the narrow “free float” that is the game. And as shifts in voting intentions between same populations between 2016, 2020, and now show, indeed a 5-10% range is moveable
The Partisans – Left or Right – they are pre-sold and irrelevant to the marketing in general.
Of course the Partisans tend to focus on themselves and not see or value the free float.
But for the Love of God – if you people reelect Trump, may God preserve us all.
@Hal_10000: Uhh… yeah
It has been obvious for months that PA, WI and MI are key so this is not a new revelation. What’s interesting is that WI was the most Trumpian of the three and now is not. I think MI will eventually show a Biden lead for many reasons but basically the composition of the electorate. Which brings up PA. TBH, Biden underperformed there last time-he won by 80k when he should have won by at least twice as much. the key to winning there for Dems is the burbs on the east side of the state which have been moving more and more D. I would imagine the abortion will be critical and that may be the key. One more thing, and Nate alluded to this, but there several reasons why current polling is pro Republican and it probably overstates their support by about 2-3%.
@Lounsbury: I don’t think that the “free float” voters comprise 5 or 10% of the whole, closer to 2 or 3 (but I’m cynical, too), but, indeed, they are cohort that one would like to target to. I think the problem with targeting them is that they are a relatively low-information and mercurial cohort. Moving targets are harder to hit. None the less, rightie wishful thinking about pat answers for how to/who to appeal to will surely carry the day.
@Lounsbury:
I think we’re all, including SenyorDave, well aware that The Partisans have long since made up their minds and that The Free Floaters are the target audience, if indeed they can be reached.
@Lounsbury:
Very wrong. Since turnout matters greatly, Trump and Biden should be trying to maximize turnout among their respective Democratic and Republican partisans in addition to targeting the unaffiliated, the disaffected, and swing voters.
There is no guarantee a partisan will actually show up to vote, for all sorts of reasons. For example, many Democratic voters sat out the 2016 election, assuming Trump was unelectable.
So, no, marketing to partisans is not an “irrelevant” endeavor. Not at all.
Non-Americans commenting on American politics should maybe show a little humility while doing so, rather than being loud and wrong while lecturing Americans.
@Raoul:
Michigan has a big Moslem vote and that electorate isn’t happy with Biden over Gaza.
@Bill Jempty: According to world atlas.com, the Muslim population is 1% in MI. Also, I think this cohort will realize the other side is worse. I think Dems will lose some votes but at the end of the day it will not be that significant.
@Bill Jempty:
Exactly what do Muslims think Trump will do for them, since he’s threatened to expel them all from this country?
The fact that Trump is neck-and-neck with Biden already shows the US is on its last legs. This is the equivalent of saying the alternative to Italian food tonight for dinner is broken glass and axle grease. And for half of the American population saying”that sounds like a legitimate alternative”.
We’re effed.
@DK: While I didn’t bother reading the original post, I did accidentally read your reply and I’ve gotta fault you: if you want to tangle with this individual your answer had too much actual insight in it. Remember, the target is to say something completely banal, then gloat about what an amazing analysis it was, and insult everyone else as they obviously cannot envision your massively brilliant world view. Try something along the lines of “Well, it’s of course not apparent to anyone with your pathetically erroneous political views and weak and insipid social outlook, but those of us who think correctly and are men of the world know that the root of the problem is this obscure and almost unknown facet of American Presidential elections – we don’t have direct elections here but instead use a college of electors!” Then chortle and rub your hands together, because you really got the blighter! For extra points, mangle the grammar.
Examining the undecided…
Some thoughts:
(1) RFK Jr is not getting 6% of the vote. Anywhere. Third parties always overperform in polls. Where do his peeps end up? Trump or Biden? Who is he drawing from?
(2) Turnout: It’s been said above, but this was the most important part of the 2020 election. Biden lacks the “excited” turnout of 2020, and if we’re at SN for turnout, the election will make the country AFU. Dem ground game needs to step up on registrations, really needs to make this its top priority, specifically in MI/WI/PA and to a lesser extent AZ/NV/GA. Issues? Building 1% more votes in urban areas in these states will be a bigger deal than another ad about Trump’s tax cuts for the wealthy.
(3) Debates are dumb. They can be entertaining, but usually for partisans who like the quippy one-liners. Otherwise they’re the summer action flicks of the presidential season – mindless schlock that you forget 30 seconds after it ends.
@Lounsbury:
The “free floaters” may indeed be the decisive factor in the election outcome, but the committed MAGAs are the historic story.
Throughout all of American history there has been some percentage of people who rejected the nation’s core principles of democracy and the rule of law; Like, I’ve had to keep reminding people that even on the eve of WWII in 1939, some 20,000 Americans rallied at Madison Square Garden in support of the Nazis.
What is different now is that this group has grown so large as to constitute somewhere around 40% of the electorate.
Even if Biden wins the election, it will be razor close and the 40% will still hold command of the majority of states.
@Bill Jempty:
The Muslim population in MI, though huge compared to the Muslim populations in other places, it is only about 100K in MI and I don’t know how many of them are registered voters, but if it’s even comparable to the rate overall we are talking about a margin so close it would be a jump ball either way.
@MarkedMan: Haha.
You’re right, you’re right, my bad lol
@ptfe: “Building 1% more votes in urban areas in these states will be a bigger deal than…”
I think you’ve nailed it and hope that people wishing for another ad about tax cuts for the wealthy will start working on getting them.
ETA: And the people hoping for another ad on abortion rights should join, too. Just sayin’.
@Rick DeMent: @Raoul: Wishful thinking. Muslim American voters in Michigan number over 100,000. Here is another news sourcesaying they helped elect Biden in 2020. Do I need to get out the 2024 American Almanac of Politics* and quote them too? Just like with the super majority that thinks Biden is too old to serve a second term, forum members are thinking these big problems don’t exist or will go away in November. They won’t and they aren’t going to change.
*- I own a copy
When is this debate going to be over? I’m so tired of hearing and reading people saying some version of, ‘ Well yeah, Trump’s an evil, lying sack of spit, but Biden doesn’t excite me.’
Polling shows 10-20% of voters think that Biden is responsible for overturning Roe v. Wade. I suspect those are mostly people on the left or in the middle, but I didn’t dig into the crosstabs any time I’ve seen this.
But, it’s pretty clear that the mushy middle who doesn’t pay attention to politics could use a bit of education and when they start paying attention things will change. They’re unhappy, they think the country is headed in the wrong direction, and they want a change. I’m reasonably confident that when they start paying attention, they will look at the change on offer and think better of it.
Right now, the race is basically a referendum on Biden — Trump could be blowing elephants at the local zoo, or getting convicted of 34 felonies, and it would still be about Biden this far out. In the fall, it will be more of a choice between the two, rather than just about Biden.
Also, nearly every special election has had polling underestimating the Democratic vote, and while I’m not going to try to estimate out the underestimation and unskew the polls*, it does make me more confident that a more-or-less tie will more likely break for Biden than Trump.
Finally, Trump was regularly getting 20% no votes in the primaries, even after he had the nomination locked up. A chunk of his Republican likely-support is soft.
——
*: I don’t even have a good sense on whether the polls are systemically off, or whether it is late deciders.
@Gustopher: Also, nearly every special election has had polling underestimating the Democratic vote, and while I’m not going to try to estimate out the underestimation and unskew the polls*, it does make me more confident that a more-or-less tie will more likely break for Biden than Trump.The polls were off four years ago. Trump did better than the polls said he would do.
My take on it, as it was 4 years ago too, people tell pollsters what they think the pollsters want to hear. We won’t support Trump but they do.
Polls aren’t good now and 2020 says they are off again and not in a good way. I won’t repeat all the reasons I think Biden will lose in November, because I have said them many times before and most forum members are in denial and trying desperately to find a rationale (Like voters are smart enough to know the economy is better now aka ignore how inflation but at the same time say too many voters are dumber than a box of rocks. If they are that dumb, how do you expect them to understand economics?) to not believe the evidence out there
This country is soooooooo fucked…
@Bill Jempty:
Here’s that same news source saying in 2022 Republicans were headed for a big giant wave in the midterm elections, predicting Trump’s party would pickup 20-35 seats. Because something something inflation, crime, Biden unpopular.
538’s final model that year gave Republicans a 59% probability of flipping the Senate, favored in Nevada snd Georgia.
When voters voted, what happened was Republicans barely won the House, with a small majority that has bedeviled them. Democrats not only held the Senate, but picked up a seat.
Nobody is clairvoyant and can predict the future. Uncertainty is uncomfortable, but people should learn to sit with it. (We won’t.)
I just learned that Biden and Trump will be standing only 8 feet apart on the stage—the two podiums look strangely close together in the CNN debate setup video. So why bother even cutting anyone’s mic? No mic will be needed to interrupt and distract…maybe should’ve planned to keep mics on so viewers can hear the distractions.
Deleted. Wrong thread.
Yeah, I’m not going to be able to listen to this. Trump has gone full-out Big Lie, and nobody can possibly call him on it effectively in this format as he just keeps making shit up. He’ll be taking credit for putting men on the moon in a few minutes.
No, he’ll be claiming that our southern border is literally the most dangerous place in the world, with hordes of immigrants raping and killing our women. Clearly The Donald needs a vacation in South Sudan…
Joe looks and sounds like shit. Half the audience will drop out before the half hour mark. This is bad.
@Michael Reynolds: Yeah, not sure what is going on but he sounds rough.
Trump’s lying his ass off, as usual, but he sounds better than Biden.
We’re getting on the road to Detroit first thing tomorrow so we won’t be able to stay up for the whole thing anyway.
@Michael Reynolds: Yeah. He sounds like he’s losing his voice. Trump is doing a Gish Gallop of lies and Biden’s not responding effectively.
Biden sounds terrible, and Trump’s lies about Roe v Wade and how everyone hated it are the types of lies dull people will convince themselves are coming from a good place and might be true.
@Michael Reynolds:
This is bad. Bad decision to debate at all.
I bailed. We’re at a hotel in West Hollywood – wife recouping from hip replacement. She has opiates so she’s still watching. I’m sitting on the balcony smoking weed and drinking bourbon. I gave Joe a grand, but we need a miracle, not more money.