Outside the Beltway

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine conduct a press briefing on Operation Epic Fury at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 10, 2026.
DoW photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Eric Brann

Who Could Have Predicted It?

Well, a lot of people, actually…

Steven L. Taylor
4

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Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff U.S. Air Force Gen. Dan Caine conduct a press briefing on Operation Epic Fury at the Pentagon, Washington, D.C., March 10, 2026.
DoW photo by U.S. Navy Petty Officer 1st Class Eric Brann

I smell a new series emerging: “Who Could Have Predicted It?”

To wit, via ABC News: Flu outbreak among Air Force recruits at Joint Base San Antonio after Hegseth ends mandatory flu vaccine.

The basic training facility for the Air Force in San Antonio, Texas, is experiencing a flu outbreak following the end of mandatory vaccination for all service members.

As of Wednesday, there are at least 159 known cases among recruits and two hospitalizations among recruits at Lackland Air Force Base at Joint Base San Antonio, two sources familiar with the matter told ABC News. One source told ABC News the number of cases and hospitalizations may be higher.

The outbreak comes after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced in April that the annual flu vaccine would be optional for all U.S. military personnel, both active and reserve. 

[…]

The sources told ABC News that there is 40% flu vaccination rate among recruits at the San Antonio base since the mandate was lifted. Previously, the rate was nearly 100%. 

I mean, who could have seen this coming except all the people who saw something like this coming?

Quite frankly, James Joyner’s post this morning could also fit.

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4 responses to “Who Could Have Predicted It?”

  1. steve222 Avatar
    steve222

    I think there has been too much emphasis on vaccines preventing deaths, which they do. However, in the case of the flu with some rare exceptions it wont kill young healthy people. However, the flu can make you so sick you are not functional for several days. If readiness is important, troops should be vaccinated. (The troops largely wont go get vaccinated unless made to do so for a number of reasons. A bunch of them are MAGA to start with but it’s also mostly a group of young guys. Many if not most have never had the flu and they pretty much believe they are immortal/invincible.)

    Steve

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  2. Steven L. Taylor Avatar
    Steven L. Taylor

    @steve222: FWIW, I think the issue here is simply an illustration that, yes, vaccines prevent illness, and when you remove them from the equation, people get sick more than they would have had they gotten the shots.

    2
  3. Slugger Avatar
    Slugger

    Vaccination lowers morbidity from disease and thus improves the readiness of the armed forces to do their job. A simple review of the experiences of 1918 shows this. If individual soldiers are allowed to opt out of this program that improves their effectiveness, are they allowed to opt out of mandatory training like marching, firearm maintenance, and target practice?

    2
  4. Scott F. Avatar
    Scott F.

    I smell a new series emerging: “Who Could Have Predicted It?”

    Be careful with what you are setting yourself up for.

    1) Postings for this series will keep you very, very busy.
    2) As gratifying as it might be to point out to Republican and Independent voters that they ignored smart people and common sense when they gave Trumpists this power, it is important to stress the original sin of the Trumpists offering stupid solutions to imagined problems to the dupes. Maybe title the series “Too Good to be True Because It Wasn’t.”

    3

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