A Note on the Scale of the Democrat’s Loss

Some sense of proportion would be nice.

You Win Some, You Lose Some

A reflection on four decades of presidential elections.

Trump’s Mandate

It’s neither unprecedented nor powerful. It doesn’t exist.

The 51 Percent

How that awful man won again.

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Whose Predictions Were Wrong?

Like Guy Fawkes, I got burnt!

Trump Wins Pennsylvania, Likely the Presidency

The 45th President looks to be the 47th.

[Guy Fawkes Mask] [Guy Fawkes Mask]

9ish Guy Fawkes Day & Beyond Predictions [Updated]

Remember, remember the fifth of November…

Final 2024 Predictions

A low confidence Election Day forecast.

Models Moving Trumpward

A modest disturbance in the force.

Are We Seeing a Realignment?

Subtle demographic changes may have created a tipping point.

Electoral College Insanity: Florida Edition

Trump is significantly outpeforming his 2020 results in New York and Florida. It doesn’t matter.

[Speaker of the House Mike Johnson] [Speaker of the House Mike Johnson]

Mike Johnson’s Cynicism

Confirming who he always has been.

Smith’s Newest Filing

More on Trump’s attempt to subvert the 2020 election.

The Other Undecided Voters

They have a preference but may not vote.

Nebraska Electoral College Change Thwarted

By one vote.

Republican Electoral College Advantage May Be Shrinking

The skews may offset.

Lindsey Went up to Nebraska

He was looking for a vote to steal.

The EC Doesn’t Work the Way Some People Claim

Part the gazillioneth.

Paths to Electoral College Victory

Does it really all come down to Pennsylvania?

Nate Silver: Pundit

Going solo has its disadvantages.

Electoral College Bias

It could all come down to Pennsylvania.

North Carolina Removes RFK Jr From Ballot

A bizarre court decision requires violating state and federal law.

Nate Silver Under Fire

The election analyst is out on a limb with Trump.

Harris Leads But Could Still Lose

Nate Silver is throwing cold water on the convention bounce.

Biden’s Second Term? Or Trump’s?

A Republican columnist is angry that Trump, not Harris, is being seen as the incumbent.

[Graph of Monmouth Survey on Enthusiasm for 2024 Presidential Race] [Graph of Monmouth Survey on Enthusiasm for 2024 Presidential Race]

The Problem Of A High Floor & Low Ceiling

A graph that shows why Trump should be concerned

Kamala’s New Map

Democrats suddenly have multiple paths to victory.

No Joe-mentum

The Democrats are in a good place heading into their convention.

Trump Campaign’s Alleged Role In The Whisper Campaign Against Shapiro

Stoking anti-Semitism for political gain

Polls, Damn Polls, and Aggregators

There’s something for everyone in the post-debate surveys.

Polls Continue Trumpward Shift

The slide continues.

Post-Debate Polling Trends

The changes are minor but in the wrong direction for the guy who’s behind.

More Data

Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.

Presidential Immunity and the Catch-22 of American Politics

All of the legal remedies are impossible.

Biden Isn’t Dropping Out

More post-debate thoughts and a reminder about how US parties work.

Trump Leads Biden Going into Tonight’s Debate

He’s doing better in all the swing states but one than in 2020.

Kennedy Won’t Qualify for Debate

That’s some catch, that Catch-22.

Crystal Ball Moves Trumpward

It all comes down to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

Age and the Supreme Court

Gaming the appointment process.

Trump’s Path to 270

It’s depressingly short.

Biden Rejects Commission on Presidential Debates

The President wants an alternative schedule and format.

An Observation or Two on SCOTUS

Well, more than two…

Is Our Problem a Lack of Public Virtue?

Are we betraying the Founders?

Maine Joins ‘National Popular Vote’ Compact

A longstanding project inches forward.

Nope Labels

Who could have seen this coming?

Nebraska Considers Winner-Take-All Electoral Vote

Partisanship and representation in conflict.

Airpods Airpods

Podcast Recommendation

“The Rise of ‘Middle-Finger Politics’”

Third Parties and Ballot Access for 2024

And back to thoughts on section 3.